Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 42%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 2 for Vasteras SK FK and 6 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 52% versus Vasteras SK FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Vasteras SK FK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.70 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.985 / defence 1.235 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.960 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Data: 23 Orgryte IS games / 23 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 42% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 35%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 90% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 42% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Orgryte IS 1.70 / Vasteras SK FK 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.985 / def 1.235 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.960 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Vasteras SK FK xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 42% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (9 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 6 | Vasteras SK FK 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.31
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.24
1.54
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.54 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 20W 14D 20L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 13L across 54 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasteras SK FK by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 11W 9D 7L from 27 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 15W 2D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.80 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 20W 14D 20L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 31W 10D 13L in their last 54 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.56 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
6
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
From 9 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 56%, Vasteras SK FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Orgryte IS and 70% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Orgryte IS's matches and 70% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.