Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 48%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Orgryte IS host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 2 for Vasteras SK FK and 6 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 49% versus Vasteras SK FK 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Vasteras SK FK 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.11 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.035 / defence 1.340 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.924 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Orgryte IS games / 19 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 29%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Vasteras SK FK 3.45. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.

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