Malmo FF 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Malmo FF face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host Degerfors IF at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eleda Stadion.
Degerfors IF — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Malmo FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Malmo FF have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 7 past contests while Degerfors IF have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 4–1 with Malmo FF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Malmo FF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 47% versus Degerfors IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 57% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 2.35 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.063 / defence 0.801 | Degerfors IF attack 0.888 / defence 1.658. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.352. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.658 — this is suppressing Malmo FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Malmo FF games / 21 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Degerfors IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 50% | Degerfors IF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Malmo FF 2.35 / Degerfors IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.063 / def 0.801 | Degerfors IF attack 0.888 / def 1.658 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 68% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Malmo FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (7 meetings): Malmo FF 6W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.06x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.66x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.46
14%
7.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
3.31
0.96
Degerfors IF xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
7.33
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
10%
10.44
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
1%
76.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.96 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 29W 15D 7L from 51 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 19L across 51 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 18W 4D 3L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 9W 7D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 29W 15D 7L in their last 51 games (2.00 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.32 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Malmo FF
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Malmo FF 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 44%, Degerfors IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Malmo FF) and 56% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 60% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Malmo FF's matches and 56% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Malmo FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Malmo FF and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 2.35 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Degerfors IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.66, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 57%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.