Hammarby FF 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees IFK Norrkoping travel to 3Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Hammarby FF at 3Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Norrkoping have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Hammarby FF have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 45% versus IFK Norrkoping 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 53% | IFK Norrkoping 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.30 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.392 / defence 0.672 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.192 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.248. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Hammarby FF games / 37 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 66% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 15%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | IFK Norrkoping 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 30% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 66% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 2.30 / IFK Norrkoping 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.392 / def 0.672 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.192 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
IFK Norrkoping xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 66% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (8 meetings): Hammarby FF 4W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 3W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.39x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
66%
1.50
19%
5.36
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.30
1.00
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.50
66%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
10%
9.98
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
1%
67.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.00 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 17D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 21W 12D 27L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.63 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.35 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 63%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hammarby FF at 60%, IFK Norrkoping at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Hammarby FF and 73% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hammarby FF's matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping finished level at 1-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.30 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.00 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.39 / defence 0.67 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.19 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 66% | Draw 19% | IFK Norrkoping 15%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.