Gais 0-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face Malmo FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Malmo FF travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Gais in Allsvenskan (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 18 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gais stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gais at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gais are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Malmo FF — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Malmo FF's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gais) versus 1.80 (Malmo FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Gais, 1 for Malmo FF and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2024, ended Gais 0–1 Malmo FF — a Malmo FF win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus Malmo FF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 58% | Malmo FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.16 xG and Malmo FF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.857 / defence 0.845 | Malmo FF attack 1.152 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.377. Data: built from Gais's last 22 games and Malmo FF's last 52.
Result probabilities: Gais 32% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.09 | Draw 3.72 | Malmo FF 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gais 50% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 32% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Gais 1.16 / Malmo FF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.857 / def 0.845 | Malmo FF attack 1.152 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Malmo FF xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does Gais vs Malmo FF kick off?
Gais vs Malmo FF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 September 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Malmo FF?
Gais 0 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is Gais vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Malmo FF part of?
Gais vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 24) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 32% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gais vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gais's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 22 games and Malmo FF's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.72
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Gais xG
Total xG
2.50
1.34
Malmo FF xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gais and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Gais and 1.34 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gais come into this having played 52 games, going 28W 9D 15L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.17 PPG from 52 outings (35W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.79 PPG, Malmo FF on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gais's home form reads 16W 4D 6L across their last 26 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.81 points per game from their last 26 away games (14W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.21 scored and 0.88 conceded. Malmo FF's attacking output running into Gais's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Malmo FF in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
Gais (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Gais vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are Gais and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 9D 15L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 35W 8D 9L in their last 52 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Malmo FF away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Gais or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Malmo FF have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Gais's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Gais
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Malmo FF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 0, Malmo FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Gais 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 42%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gais) and 62% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Malmo FF in 38%; Gais have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and Malmo FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gais's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gais and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Gais's matches and 62% of Malmo FF's.
Do Gais and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Gais's recent matches and 77% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gais's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 24, as Gais and Malmo FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.16 xG and Malmo FF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gais fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Malmo FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 32% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 41%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 58%, Malmo FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.79 PPG, Malmo FF 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.