Sirius 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 25 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Studenternas IP this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sirius at 1.90 PPG versus AIK Stockholm's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sirius, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 56% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 64% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.74 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.188 / defence 1.104 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.931 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.301. Data: 52 Sirius games / 53 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 47% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 30%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | AIK Stockholm 3.33. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 47% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Sirius 1.74 / AIK Stockholm 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.188 / def 1.104 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.931 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Sirius (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 47% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.26
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.08
1.34
AIK Stockholm xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
5%
19.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sirius and 1.34 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 22W 10D 20L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 21W 12D 19L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.46 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (12W 3D 11L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.31 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 22W 10D 20L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 21W 12D 19L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Sirius's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.50 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 54%, AIK Stockholm 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Sirius) and 50% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sirius's recent matches and 54% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sirius's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.74 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.34 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.19 / defence 1.10 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 47% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.46 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.