AIK Stockholm 2-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as AIK Stockholm welcome IF Elfsborg to Strawberry Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strawberry Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strawberry Arena this season.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, IF Elfsborg have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for AIK Stockholm.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 1–6 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 49% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | IF Elfsborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.901 / defence 0.834 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.165 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.246. IF Elfsborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 AIK Stockholm games / 57 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 28%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
IF Elfsborg lead the H2H ledger, but AIK Stockholm carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.56 / IF Elfsborg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.901 / def 0.834 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.165 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.21
IF Elfsborg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 44% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 4W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.62
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.77
1.21
IF Elfsborg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.21 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 24W 12D 21L from 57 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 32W 9D 16L across 57 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.47 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 14W 3D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.91 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 24W 12D 21L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 32W 9D 16L in their last 57 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IF Elfsborg away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.75 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.61 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 43%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AIK Stockholm) and 61% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 61% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IF Elfsborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.17 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 44% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 28%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, IF Elfsborg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.47 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.