Osasuna 2-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Girona (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Girona edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2024, ended Osasuna 0–4 Girona — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Girona 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.81 xG and Girona 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.146 / defence 1.163 | Girona attack 0.817 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.247. Girona's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Osasuna's last 68 games and Girona's last 68.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.92 | Draw 4.34 | Girona 4.03. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 90% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Osasuna 1.81 / Girona 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.146 / def 1.163 | Girona attack 0.817 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Girona xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Girona FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Girona kick off?
Osasuna vs Girona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Girona.
Where is Osasuna vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Girona part of?
Osasuna vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 52% chance of winning, Girona a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.82x) against Osasuna's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 68 games and Girona's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.34
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.00
1.18
Girona xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.18 for Girona, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 23D 26L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 34W 13D 21L from 68 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 34 home games (12W 11D 11L).
On the road, Girona have gone 13W 8D 13L from their last 34 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.79 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Girona in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 23D 26L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while Girona have gone 34W 13D 21L in their last 68 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Girona away?
Osasuna's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.38 PPG; Girona away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won Girona 4-0 Osasuna on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 62%, Girona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 50% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Osasuna's games and 56% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osasuna and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Osasuna's recent matches and 79% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Girona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.81 xG and Girona 1.18 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.15 / defence 1.16 against Girona attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 52% | Draw 23% | Girona 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Girona 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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