Leganes 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leganes at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leganes face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leganes and Osasuna meet at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in La Liga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Leganes's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Leganes at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Leganes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Leganes against 0.90 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Leganes's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) — Leganes have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Osasuna in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Leganes, 0 for Osasuna and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Leganes 1–1 Osasuna — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Leganes — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 45% versus Osasuna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 41% | Osasuna 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Leganes surrender their half-time lead 83% of the time, while Osasuna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.944 / defence 1.273 | Osasuna attack 0.633 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.236. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.633 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Leganes's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Leganes's last 29 games and Osasuna's last 67.
Result probabilities: Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.54 | Draw 3.40 | Osasuna 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leganes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leganes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leganes 30% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Leganes 1.16 / Osasuna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.944 / def 1.273 | Osasuna attack 0.633 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Leganes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leganes vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Leganes vs Osasuna kick off?
Leganes vs Osasuna kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 7 April 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Osasuna?
Leganes 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Leganes vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Osasuna part of?
Leganes vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Leganes and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Leganes vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Leganes's attack rating (0.94) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.63x) against Leganes's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Leganes's last 29 games and Osasuna's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.40
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.15
1.00
Osasuna xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leganes vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Leganes and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Leganes and 1.00 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Leganes have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 9D 14L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 7W 13D 9L from 29 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Leganes against 1.17 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Leganes have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 14 home games (5W 2D 7L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 7D 6L from their last 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leganes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leganes are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.14 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna in 62%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Leganes (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leganes
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Leganes vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Leganes and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 6W 9D 14L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 7W 13D 9L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Osasuna away?
Leganes's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.21 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Leganes and Osasuna, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
2
Draws
0
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Leganes vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Osasuna?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Leganes have won 0, Osasuna have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2025: Leganes 1-1 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leganes see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Leganes) and 36% (Osasuna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Leganes) and 29% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Leganes have failed to score in 43% of games; Osasuna in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leganes vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leganes and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Leganes's recent matches and 36% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leganes and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Leganes's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Leganes and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 30, as Leganes and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Osasuna attack 0.63 / defence 0.91, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 41%, Osasuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 0.93 PPG, Osasuna 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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