Mallorca 1-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Mallorca take on Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Mallorca, 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Mallorca have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Rayo Vallecano in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Mallorca, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Rayo Vallecano — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Mallorca winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mallorca and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 49% versus Rayo Vallecano 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 32% | Rayo Vallecano 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.01 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.852 / defence 0.883 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.891 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.078. Data: 47 Mallorca games / 47 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 36% | Draw 37% | Rayo Vallecano 27%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Rayo Vallecano 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Rayo Vallecano 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 36% | Draw 37% | Rayo Vallecano 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Mallorca 1.01 / Rayo Vallecano 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.852 / def 0.883 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.891 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Rayo Vallecano xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 36% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 4W | Draws 1 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in?
Mallorca (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.85x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.89x) against Mallorca's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
37%
2.68
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.86
0.85
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.85 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 12W 18D 17L from 47 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 18L across 47 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Mallorca against 1.09 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 7W 10D 6L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.85 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 12W 18D 17L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 11W 18D 18L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Mallorca's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.35 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 3-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mallorca
2
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Mallorca) and 26% (Rayo Vallecano) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Mallorca and 44% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 44%; Mallorca have failed to score in 35% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 26% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Mallorca's recent games and 44% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 35% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.01 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.85 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 36% | Draw 37% | Rayo Vallecano 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 32%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.15 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.