Mallorca 1-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 47%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mallorca vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to face Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mallorca's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Celta Vigo have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Celta Vigo are 0.60 PPG clear of Mallorca over their recent games (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mallorca's last 10 home games and Celta Vigo's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Mallorca's games and 70% of Celta Vigo's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Mallorca, 2 for Celta Vigo and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2024, ended Mallorca 0–2 Celta Vigo — a Celta Vigo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 49% versus Celta Vigo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 33% | Celta Vigo 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mallorca surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Celta Vigo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Celta Vigo surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Mallorca recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.52 xG and Celta Vigo 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.954 / defence 0.963 | Celta Vigo attack 0.930 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.201. Data: built from Mallorca's last 67 games and Celta Vigo's last 67.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.11 | Draw 3.90 | Celta Vigo 3.72. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 70% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 30 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Mallorca 1.52 / Celta Vigo 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.954 / def 0.963 | Celta Vigo attack 0.930 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Celta Vigo xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Mallorca 1 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Celta Vigo part of?
Mallorca vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 30) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 47% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mallorca and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mallorca vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.95) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.93x) against Mallorca's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 67 games and Celta Vigo's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.90
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.59
1.08
Celta Vigo xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
16.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.08 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca's recent record stands at 19W 23D 25L from 67 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 28L across 67 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mallorca against 1.21 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 12W 13D 8L from their last 33 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 6W 9D 18L across their last 33 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.31 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 63%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 19W 23D 25L in their last 67 games (1.19 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Celta Vigo away?
Mallorca's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.48 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mallorca and Celta Vigo, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
3
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 3, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 52%, Celta Vigo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mallorca) and 67% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Celta Vigo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mallorca's games and 67% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mallorca and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mallorca's recent games and 67% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Mallorca's recent matches and 64% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.52 xG and Celta Vigo 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Celta Vigo attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Celta Vigo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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