Las Palmas 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Las Palmas have posted 3W 2D 5L at Estadio de Gran Canaria — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Las Palmas are significantly better at Estadio de Gran Canaria than their overall form suggests.
Alaves (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Alaves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Las Palmas 1W, Alaves 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Alaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 52% versus Alaves 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 40% | Alaves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.31 xG and Alaves 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.820 / defence 1.158 | Alaves attack 1.157 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.120. Data: 65 Las Palmas games / 65 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 25% | Alaves 42%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 60% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 33% | Draw 25% | Alaves 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Las Palmas 1.31 / Alaves 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.820 / def 1.158 | Alaves attack 1.157 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Alaves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Alaves xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Alaves kick off?
Las Palmas vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Las Palmas 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Las Palmas vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Alaves part of?
Las Palmas vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 33% chance of winning, Alaves a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Las Palmas and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Alaves?
Record (3 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 1 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Alaves in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.82x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (1.16x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
33%
3.02
25%
3.98
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.81
1.50
Alaves xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.50 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 16W 16D 33L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves's form line: 18W 18D 29L from 65 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.11 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
On the road, Alaves have gone 5W 10D 17L from 32 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Alaves in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 16W 16D 33L in their last 65 games (0.98 PPG), while Alaves have gone 18W 18D 29L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Alaves away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.16 PPG; Alaves away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Las Palmas 2-2 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 56%, Alaves 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 53% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Alaves tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Alaves in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas and Alaves finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.31 xG and Alaves 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Alaves attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 33% | Draw 25% | Alaves 42%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 40%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.98 PPG, Alaves 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.