Athletic Club 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Athletic Club face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
San Mamés Barria plays host to Athletic Club versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Athletic Club have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at San Mamés Barria, Athletic Club have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Athletic Club's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Athletic Club, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Osasuna — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Athletic Club winning.
The historical record gives Athletic Club a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 50% versus Osasuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 42% | Osasuna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.78 xG and Osasuna 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.262 / defence 0.779 | Osasuna attack 0.690 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.190. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Athletic Club's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Athletic Club games / 66 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 65% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 13%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Osasuna 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Athletic Club 60% | Osasuna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 65% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 39% | xG Athletic Club 1.78 / Osasuna 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.262 / def 0.779 | Osasuna attack 0.690 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Osasuna xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Osasuna kick off?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Athletic Club 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Athletic Club vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Osasuna part of?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 65% chance of winning, Osasuna a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Athletic Club and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Record (7 meetings): Athletic Club 4W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.69x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.48
13%
7.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.42
0.64
Osasuna xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
7.79
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
46.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.64 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 33W 21D 12L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 19W 21D 26L from 66 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 2.22 PPG from 32 outings (20W 11D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Athletic Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 7W 10D 15L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.18 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 33W 21D 12L in their last 66 games (1.82 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 21D 26L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Osasuna away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.22 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Osasuna in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
4
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Osasuna have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Athletic Club 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 53%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Athletic Club) and 47% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Osasuna in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Athletic Club's recent games and 47% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Osasuna tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Athletic Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 29, as Athletic Club and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.78 xG and Osasuna 0.64 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Osasuna attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 65% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 13%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 42%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.