Almeria 0-0 Girona – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Girona at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Girona encounter.

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Full Analysis

Power Horse Stadium plays host to Almeria versus Girona in La Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Almeria have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Almeria's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Girona's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Girona are 2.40 PPG clear of Almeria over their recent games (2.60 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Almeria's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) — Almeria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Girona in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Girona edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 6.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Almeria 2–5 Girona — a Girona win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Almeria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almeria 67% and Girona 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 63% | Girona 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Almeria surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Girona have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.17 xG and Girona 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.850 / defence 1.267 | Girona attack 1.501 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.125. Girona have an above-average attack rating of 1.501, which lifts their away xG to 2.14. Almeria's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 57 games and Girona's last 57.

Result probabilities: Almeria 19% | Draw 23% | Girona 58%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 5.36 | Draw 4.31 | Girona 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Girona (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.17 / 2.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 6.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 60% (last 10 home games) | Girona 90% (last 10 away games).

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