Sevilla 2-3 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sevilla face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Friday 12 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sevilla at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Sevilla, 0.90 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Alaves edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2023, ended Sevilla 3–4 Alaves — a Alaves win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 58% versus Alaves 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 47% | Alaves 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.23 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.850 / defence 1.212 | Alaves attack 0.647 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.125. Alaves's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Sevilla's last 57 games and Alaves's last 19.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 33% | Alaves 25%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.37 | Draw 3.01 | Alaves 4.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Friday 12 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 33% | Alaves 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sevilla 1.23 / Alaves 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.850 / def 1.212 | Alaves attack 0.647 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Alaves xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Alaves kick off?
Sevilla vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 12 January 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Sevilla 2 - 3 Alaves.
Where is Sevilla vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Alaves part of?
Sevilla vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 42% chance of winning, Alaves a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sevilla and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sevilla vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 0.85x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.65x) against Sevilla's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 57 games and Alaves's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.01
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.11
0.88
Alaves xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.88 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sevilla come into this having played 19 games, going 3W 7D 9L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Sevilla against 0.89 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sevilla's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 10 away games (0W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.79 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Sevilla (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Sevilla vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Alaves in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 3W 7D 9L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Alaves away?
Sevilla's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.00 PPG; Alaves away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 0W 4D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sevilla
5
Draws
3
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 1, Alaves have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Sevilla 0-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 70%, Alaves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sevilla) and 30% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Alaves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sevilla's games and 50% of Alaves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sevilla and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sevilla's recent games and 30% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Sevilla's recent matches and 60% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Sevilla 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Sevilla 2-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.23 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.85 / defence 1.21 against Alaves attack 0.65 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 42% | Draw 33% | Alaves 25%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 47%, Alaves 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 0.84 PPG, Alaves 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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