Suwon City FC 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Suwon City FC take on Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.04 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.996 / defence 1.212 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.846 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.016. Data: 8 Suwon City FC games / 8 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Suwon City FC 1.04 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.996 / def 1.212 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.846 / def 1.049 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
37%
2.68
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.08
1.04
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.04 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.04 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.