Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Pohang Steelers are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 52% versus Pohang Steelers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Pohang Steelers 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.13 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.871 / defence 0.984 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.127 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.186. Data: 23 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 56 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 40%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Pohang Steelers 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Pohang Steelers 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.13 / Pohang Steelers 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.871 / def 0.984 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.127 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Pohang Steelers xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 2 August 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 32% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (1.13x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 23/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.56
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.32
Pohang Steelers xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.32 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 5W 8D 10L from 23 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 6L across 23 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pohang Steelers by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.39 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Last 23 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Pohang Steelers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
1
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 7, Pohang Steelers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%, Pohang Steelers 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 46% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 54% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 46% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.13 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.32 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 28% | Pohang Steelers 40%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, Pohang Steelers 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.