Pohang Steelers 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 June 2024 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 6W 3D 1L at Steelyard Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at Steelyard Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pohang Steelers) versus 1.50 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pohang Steelers, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.20 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.842 / defence 0.837 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.106 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.148. Data: 52 Pohang Steelers games / 52 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.20 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.842 / def 0.837 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.106 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 39% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Pohang Steelers 0W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.84x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.51
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.06 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 28D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 76 outings (45W 17D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.63 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 21W 11D 5L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.78 points per game from 37 outings (19W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 32W 28D 16L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.00 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 60%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pohang Steelers) and 49% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pohang Steelers's games and 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.20 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.84 / defence 0.84 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 37%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.63 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.