Jeju United FC 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeju United FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Incheon United (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Incheon United have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.50 for Incheon United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Incheon United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Incheon United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Incheon United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.58 xG and Incheon United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.093 / defence 0.994 | Incheon United attack 1.024 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.255. Data: 62 Jeju United FC games / 62 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 44% | Draw 25% | Incheon United 31%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Incheon United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 80% | Incheon United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 44% | Draw 25% | Incheon United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Jeju United FC 1.58 / Incheon United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.093 / def 0.994 | Incheon United attack 1.024 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Incheon United xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Incheon United?
Jeju United FC 0 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Incheon United part of?
Jeju United FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 44% chance of winning, Incheon United a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jeju United FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Incheon United in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Incheon United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (1.09) and Incheon United's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (1.02x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.97
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Incheon United xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.28 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 23W 25D 19L from 67 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Incheon United, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 22L across 67 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.36 for Incheon United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 12W 12D 9L from 33 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Incheon United's away record stands at 10W 11D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.12 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 23W 25D 19L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 23W 22D 22L in their last 67 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Incheon United away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Incheon United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
5
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 4, Incheon United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 64%, Incheon United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jeju United FC) and 52% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jeju United FC's games and 61% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 52% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Incheon United defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Jeju United FC 0-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.58 xG and Incheon United 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Incheon United attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 44% | Draw 25% | Incheon United 31%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Incheon United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Incheon United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG, Incheon United 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Incheon United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.