Gwangju FC 0-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gwangju FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gwangju FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gwangju FC 1.70 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gwangju FC have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 34% versus Jeonbuk Motors 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.93 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.152 / defence 1.121 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.775 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.271. Data: 45 Gwangju FC games / 45 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 57% | Draw 22% | Jeonbuk Motors 21%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Jeonbuk Motors 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Gwangju FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 10% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 57% | Draw 22% | Jeonbuk Motors 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Gwangju FC 1.93 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.152 / def 1.121 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.775 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jeonbuk Motors xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gwangju FC 0 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 57% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (2 meetings): Gwangju FC 0W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.51
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.10
Jeonbuk Motors xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
3%
32.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.10 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gwangju FC come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 11D 11L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.50 PPG from 38 outings (16W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.55 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gwangju FC's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.18 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 games (1.55 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.63 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gwangju FC
3
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 4-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gwangju FC 16% BTTS, Jeonbuk Motors 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Gwangju FC and 32% for Jeonbuk Motors.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 32%; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 16% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 37% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 32% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Gwangju FC 0-3 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.93 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 57% | Draw 22% | Jeonbuk Motors 21%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Jeonbuk Motors win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 26%, Jeonbuk Motors 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.55 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.