Gangwon FC 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.50 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 53% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 49% | Jeju United FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.46 xG and Jeju United FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.052 / defence 1.042 | Jeju United FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.279. Data: 65 Gangwon FC games / 65 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 39% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Jeju United FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 70% | Jeju United FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 39% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Gangwon FC 1.46 / Jeju United FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.052 / def 1.042 | Jeju United FC attack 1.037 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Jeju United FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 39% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
39%
2.55
25%
4.00
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.38
Jeju United FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.38 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 70 games, going 23W 19D 28L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.40 PPG from 70 outings (24W 26D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.26 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 15W 10D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 34 outings (12W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 23W 19D 28L in their last 70 games (1.26 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 26D 20L in their last 70 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 50%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.46 xG and Jeju United FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Jeju United FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 39% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 36%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 49%, Jeju United FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.26 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.