Gangwon FC 2-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Gangwon FC take on Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 July 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 1W 6D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 0.80 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gangwon FC 53% and Jeju United FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 37% | Jeju United FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.85 xG and Jeju United FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.870 / defence 0.903 | Jeju United FC attack 0.722 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.365. Data: 20 Gangwon FC games / 19 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 31% | Draw 36% | Jeju United FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Jeju United FC 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 33% | Jeju United FC 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 31% | Draw 36% | Jeju United FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Gangwon FC 0.85 / Jeju United FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.870 / def 0.903 | Jeju United FC attack 0.722 / def 1.041 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Jeju United FC xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 31% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
36%
2.78
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
1.74
0.89
Jeju United FC xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.89 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gangwon FC come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 8D 7L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (4W 10D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.05 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gangwon FC's home form reads 2W 5D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (1W 6D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gangwon FC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 68%.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 4W 10D 5L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.22 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gangwon FC
7
Draws
0
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 33%, Jeju United FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Gangwon FC and 33% for Jeju United FC.
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 56%; Gangwon FC have failed to score in 44% of games; Jeju United FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 44% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 33% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Gangwon FC and Jeju United FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.85 xG and Jeju United FC 0.89 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeju United FC outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Jeju United FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 31% | Draw 36% | Jeju United FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 37%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.05 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.