Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon Citizen have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Daejeon Citizen) versus 1.40 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 4–1 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 54% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 47% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.886 / defence 1.103 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.933 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.225. Data: 50 Daejeon Citizen games / 50 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 27% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 27% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Daejeon Citizen 0.98 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.886 / def 1.103 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.933 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 27% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 4W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.89) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
27%
3.69
32%
3.11
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.24
1.26
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.26 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 22W 17D 16L from 55 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 22L across 55 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 1.51 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 10W 9D 8L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 22W 17D 16L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 14D 22L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.44 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 56%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Daejeon Citizen) and 37% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 33% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 37% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 2-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 27% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 47%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.51 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.