NEOM 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as NEOM welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to King Khalid Sports City. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, NEOM have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM at King Khalid Sports City this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 3.00 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of NEOM's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
NEOM trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEOM 79% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEOM 64% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEOM 0.91 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEOM attack 0.706 / defence 1.171 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.497 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.448. NEOM's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.497 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 NEOM games / 48 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEOM 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%. Fair-value odds: NEOM 9.09 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEOM 71% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Khalid Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEOM 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 55% | xG NEOM 0.91 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: NEOM attack 0.706 / def 1.171 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.497 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
NEOM xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at King Khalid Sports City.
What was the final score in NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
NEOM 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Khalid Sports City.
What competition is NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives NEOM a 11% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 73% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
NEOM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEOM's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus NEOM's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-3 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
11%
8.79
16%
6.23
73%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
NEOM xG
Total xG
3.45
2.54
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
8.79
11%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
1.38
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
8%
12.65
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
1%
111.20
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for NEOM and 2.54 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEOM's recent record stands at 6W 2D 6L from 14 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 2D 0L across 14 games — 2.71 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEOM heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEOM have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 5W 1D 0L across 6 trips, a 2.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEOM are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.71 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEOM have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEOM
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
NEOM have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 12W 2D 0L in their last 14 (2.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEOM at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEOM at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.67 PPG.
Have NEOM or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEOM have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
NEOM
0
Draws
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, NEOM have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 NEOM.
Who has won more matches between NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEOM at 83%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for NEOM and 67% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEOM home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEOM play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of NEOM's games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEOM vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of NEOM's matches and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do NEOM and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
NEOM have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out NEOM 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat NEOM 1-2 at King Khalid Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEOM 0.91 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.54 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEOM attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEOM 11% | Draw 16% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEOM 64%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEOM's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.