Damac 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Damac welcome Al-Hazm to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 August 2025 at 17:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Damac haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Damac at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
H2H Record
Damac hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws in between.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Damac a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.63 xG and Al-Hazm 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.875 / defence 0.971 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.442. Data: 34 Damac games / 0 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 28%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 3.57. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Aug 2025, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Damac 1.63 / Al-Hazm 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.875 / def 0.971 | Al-Hazm attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Damac (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Hazm xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:05 on Thursday 28 August 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Damac 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hazm part of?
Damac vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 48% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Damac and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Damac 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Hazm in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.88x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.08
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Damac xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Al-Hazm xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Damac and 1.19 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Pre-Season
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2023, when Damac won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Damac
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hazm?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Damac and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Damac and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.63 xG and Al-Hazm 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Al-Hazm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 48% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 28%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.