Al Wehda Club 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wehda Club face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 2W 3D 5L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al Wehda Club.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–7 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 62% and Al-Ittihad FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wehda Club 64% | Al-Ittihad FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.976 / defence 1.340 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.130 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.352. Data: 53 Al Wehda Club games / 53 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.30 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.976 / def 1.340 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.130 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Al-Ittihad FC xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 24% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
24%
4.16
21%
4.69
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.35
2.05
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
3%
32.19
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.05 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 13W 10D 30L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 32W 7D 14L from 53 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 13W 5D 8L from 26 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.06 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 13W 10D 30L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 32W 7D 14L in their last 53 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.08 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2024, when Al-Ittihad FC won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 69%, Al-Ittihad FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al Wehda Club and 58% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Wehda Club's games and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 58% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Wehda Club 1-4 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.05 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 2.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 64%, Al-Ittihad FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.