Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Fayha at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 1W 0D 2L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Riyadh 0.67 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 33% versus Al-Fayha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 67% | Al-Fayha 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.87 xG and Al-Fayha 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.641 / defence 1.169 | Al-Fayha attack 0.868 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.438. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al Riyadh games / 36 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 1.96. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 0% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Riyadh 0.87 / Al-Fayha 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.641 / def 1.169 | Al-Fayha attack 0.868 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al-Fayha xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Al Riyadh 1 - 3 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 22% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
22%
4.45
27%
3.76
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.33
1.46
Al-Fayha xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
5%
19.15
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.2 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.46 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 0.67 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 33%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Riyadh) and 33% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 33%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 33% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.87 xG and Al-Fayha 1.46 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.64 / defence 1.17 against Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 22% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 51%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 67%, Al-Fayha 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.67 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.