Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Raed, 3 for Al-Fayha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 5–0 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al-Fayha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Al-Fayha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.737 / defence 1.139 | Al-Fayha attack 0.827 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.344. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al-Raed games / 53 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Raed 1.23 / Al-Fayha 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.737 / def 1.139 | Al-Fayha attack 0.827 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.71
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Al-Fayha xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.27 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 13W 12D 28L from 53 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 21L across 53 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 0.96 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 7W 5D 14L from 26 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.09 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 28L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 50%, Al-Fayha 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Raed and 69% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 38% of games; Al-Fayha in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Raed's games and 69% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Raed's matches and 69% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 37%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al-Fayha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.96 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.