Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2 for Al Taawon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Taawon trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% and Al Taawon 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al Taawon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG and Al Taawon 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.130 / defence 0.885 | Al Taawon attack 1.114 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.310. Data: 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 39 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.85. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 46% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 / Al Taawon 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.130 / def 0.885 | Al Taawon attack 1.114 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al Taawon xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.13) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.59
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.29
Al Taawon xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
5%
22.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.29 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 27W 8D 4L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon's form line: 15W 11D 13L from 39 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (12W 6D 1L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.59 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 27W 8D 4L in their last 39 games (2.28 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al Taawon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al Taawon 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 63% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 68% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 63% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.