Al Okhdood 3-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 5W 1D 3L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (1.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.78 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 32% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 37% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.733 / defence 0.942 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.422 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.414. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Al Okhdood games / 19 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Okhdood 1.05 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.733 / def 0.942 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.422 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Okhdood 3 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 21% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.42x) against Al Okhdood's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
21%
4.83
22%
4.49
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.95
1.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.83
21%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
3%
32.09
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.89 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 2D 11L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 12W 4D 3L from 19 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.16 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 6W 2D 11L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 12W 4D 3L in their last 19 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 22%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Al Okhdood and 89% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 89% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 56% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Al Okhdood's matches and 89% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.42 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 37%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Al Okhdood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.