Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 1D 1L at Al Awal Park at King Saud University — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Nassr, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Al-Fateh — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 5–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 49% versus Al-Fateh 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Fateh 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.00 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.398 / defence 0.895 | Al-Fateh attack 1.037 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.425. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Al-Nassr games / 49 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 4.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Fateh 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Nassr 2.00 / Al-Fateh 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.398 / def 0.895 | Al-Fateh attack 1.037 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 53% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.40) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.04x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.52
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.32
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.32 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 35W 8D 6L from 49 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 19L across 49 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 19W 4D 1L from 24 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 12W 3D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.65 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 35W 8D 6L in their last 49 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 9D 19L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.54 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 54%, Al-Fateh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 79% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Nassr's games and 62% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.00 xG and Al-Fateh 1.32 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.40 / defence 0.90 against Al-Fateh attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 53% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 25%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Fateh 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.