Al-Nassr 3-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 22 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Nassr have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al-Nassr have won 1, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Al-Nassr 1–2 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 46% versus Al-Ettifaq 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 67% | Al-Ettifaq 39%). Note also that Al-Ettifaq surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.56 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.353 / defence 0.865 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.706 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.358. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.353 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.747, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 46 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 47.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.86 | Draw 3.71 | Al-Ettifaq 5.19. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 22 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.56 / Al-Ettifaq 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.353 / def 0.865 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.706 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Ettifaq xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 22 December 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 3 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.35x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 46 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.71
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.39
0.83
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.83 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 32W 8D 6L from 46 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 17L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 18W 4D 1L from their last 23 home games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across their last 23 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.02 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 32W 8D 6L in their last 46 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.52 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Nassr.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 52%, Al-Ettifaq 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Nassr) and 35% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 30%; Al-Ettifaq in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 30% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 65% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 3-1 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.56 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.83 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.86 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.71 / defence 0.75, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 19%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Ettifaq 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.