Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Hazm travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 December 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 5D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 0.70 PPG versus Al-Hazm's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Al-Ettifaq hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Hazm, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ettifaq and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 50% versus Al-Hazm 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al-Hazm 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.66 xG and Al-Hazm 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.897 / defence 0.980 | Al-Hazm attack 0.696 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.409. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Al-Ettifaq games / 18 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hazm 4.76. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Hazm 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.66 / Al-Hazm 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.897 / def 0.980 | Al-Hazm attack 0.696 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Hazm xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 28 December 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 53% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.90
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.62
0.96
Al-Hazm xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
24.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.96 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 10L across 18 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 0W 5D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.00 scored and 2.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ettifaq at 75%, Al-Hazm at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 50% (Al-Hazm).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm finished level at 1-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.66 xG and Al-Hazm 0.96 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Al-Hazm attack 0.70 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 53% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 21%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 39%, Al-Hazm 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.