Al Kholood 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Kholood have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Kholood, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.856 / defence 1.337 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.851 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.409. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Al Kholood games / 48 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 21% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 21% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Kholood 0.91 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.856 / def 1.337 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.851 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 15:10 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Kholood 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 21% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al Kholood 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.85x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
21%
4.66
25%
4.00
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.52
1.60
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
23.15
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.60 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Al Kholood have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 4D 28L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 30W 8D 10L from 48 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Kholood have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (10W 2D 11L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 14W 2D 7L from 23 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Kholood are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.88 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 16W 4D 28L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 30W 8D 10L in their last 48 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 56%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al Kholood) and 35% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48%; Al Kholood have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al Kholood's recent games and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Kholood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Kholood 0-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.60 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.86 / defence 1.34 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 0.69, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 21% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.