Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 3 for Al Khaleej Saihat.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 3–2 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fateh have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al-Fateh trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% and Al-Fateh 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Al-Fateh 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.81 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.045 / defence 0.984 | Al-Fateh attack 0.848 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Data: 46 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 46 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 4.17. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al Khaleej Saihat carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.81 / Al-Fateh 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.045 / def 0.984 | Al-Fateh attack 0.848 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 49% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Record (9 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 6W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (1.04) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.66
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.04
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
4%
25.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.23 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 13D 20L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 0.93 PPG from 46 outings (10W 13D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.13 PPG, Al-Fateh on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 8W 5D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (3W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.11 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 23L in their last 46 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
6
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-3 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Fateh 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 39% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 39% of games; Al-Fateh in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 56% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 39% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.