Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Damac meet at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City than their overall form suggests.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Damac's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.30 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 3W, Damac 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Damac — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 67% and Damac 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.96 xG and Damac 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.385 / defence 0.821 | Damac attack 0.732 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Al-Ittihad FC games / 67 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 63% | Draw 21% | Damac 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Damac 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Damac 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 63% | Draw 21% | Damac 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.96 / Damac 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.385 / def 0.821 | Damac attack 0.732 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Damac xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 63% chance of winning, Damac a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 2 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.39x the league average against Damac's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.73x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.73
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.82
0.86
Damac xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
44.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.86 for Damac, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 41W 11D 15L from 67 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 29L across 67 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 24W 3D 6L from 33 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 7W 9D 17L across 33 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Damac
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 41W 11D 15L in their last 67 games (2.00 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 19D 29L in their last 67 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.27 PPG; Damac away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 73%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Al-Ittihad FC and 48% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 54% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 48% of Damac's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Damac in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Damac 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 1-0 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.96 xG and Damac 0.86 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Damac landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.82 against Damac attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 63% | Draw 21% | Damac 16%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 67%, Damac 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.