Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 79% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Okhdood travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al Okhdood — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Okhdood 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.75 xG and Al Okhdood 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.576 / defence 0.686 | Al Okhdood attack 0.741 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.465. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.576 — their 2.75 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.686), which is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 55 games and Al Okhdood's last 25.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.27 | Draw 7.15 | Al Okhdood 14.04. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (79%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.75 / Al Okhdood 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.576 / def 0.686 | Al Okhdood attack 0.741 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Al Okhdood xG
50%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 79% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.58x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.75. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 55 games and Al Okhdood's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
79%
1.27
14%
7.15
7%
14.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.50
0.74
Al Okhdood xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.15
14%
Draw
14.04
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
6%
15.66
Win to Nil
37%
2.67
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.74 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 23W 2D 0L from 25 games, a 2.84 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 15L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 12W 0D 0L from their last 12 home games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across their last 12 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 3.04 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.88 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 23W 2D 0L in their last 25 games (2.84 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 7W 3D 15L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 February 2026: Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42%, Al Okhdood 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 50% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 50% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 50% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 67% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 3-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.75 xG and Al Okhdood 0.74 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.69 against Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79% | Draw 14% | Al Okhdood 7%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, Al Okhdood 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.84 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.