Al-Fayha 3-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al Okhdood at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.30 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 65% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 62% | Al Okhdood 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.45 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.835 / defence 1.176 | Al Okhdood attack 0.684 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.476. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Al-Fayha games / 26 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Okhdood 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Fayha 1.45 / Al Okhdood 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.835 / def 1.176 | Al Okhdood attack 0.684 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Fayha 3 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 43% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.83x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.69
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.64
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.19 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 8D 10L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (7W 3D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.23 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.85 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 7W 3D 16L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Fayha's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.85 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 46%, Al Okhdood 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Fayha) and 54% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 54% of games; Al Okhdood in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 46% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 54% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 3-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.45 xG and Al Okhdood 1.19 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Al Okhdood attack 0.68 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 62%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.