Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Hazm to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.30 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Hazm and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 9–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al-Hazm 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% | Al-Hazm 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.64 xG and Al-Hazm 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.502 / defence 0.712 | Al-Hazm attack 0.774 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.404. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.502 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 30 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Draw 16% | Al-Hazm 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Hazm 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Hazm 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Draw 16% | Al-Hazm 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.64 / Al-Hazm 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.502 / def 0.712 | Al-Hazm attack 0.774 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Al-Hazm xG
51%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 76% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.50) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.33
8%
12.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.42
0.77
Al-Hazm xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.33
16%
Draw
12.80
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
7%
14.04
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
179.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.77 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.87 PPG on a 28W 2D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Hazm's form line: 3W 11D 16L from 30 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 2.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.87 PPG from 15 outings (14W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 7D 7L from 15 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 3.03 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.97 scored and 2.27 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 28W 2D 0L in their last 30 games (2.87 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 11D 16L in their last 30 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.87 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 47% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 47% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 4-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.64 xG and Al-Hazm 0.77 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.71 against Al-Hazm attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76% | Draw 16% | Al-Hazm 8%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67%, Al-Hazm 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.87 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.87 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.