Al-Hazm vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Thursday 3 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.80 PPG clear of Al-Hazm in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 61% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.78 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.940 / defence 1.102 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.698 / defence 0.550. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.550 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.698 — the away xG of 2.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al-Hazm games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 7% | Draw 16% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 77%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 14.29 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%.

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