Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (84%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 29 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Al-Fateh's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 59% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 48% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.74 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / defence 1.352 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.697 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.697 — the away xG of 3.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 4% | Draw 11% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 84%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 25.00 | Draw 9.09 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.19. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (84%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 4% | Draw 11% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 84% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 0.74 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / def 1.352 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.697 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
3.29
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
51%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 April 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 4% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 84% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 3.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-3, at 10.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.6%), 0-4 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
4%
24.45
11%
8.71
84%
1.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 4
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
4.03
3.29
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
24.45
4%
Home win
8.71
11%
Draw
1.18
84%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
4%
26.74
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 5.7 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 3.29 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 13D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.52 PPG from 44 outings (34W 9D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.55 points per game from 22 outings (17W 5D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.61 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 34W 9D 1L in their last 44 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.55 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Fateh) and 64% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 46%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fateh's games and 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Fateh's matches and 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.