Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Faisaly FC (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Faisaly FC face Abha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Abha travel to to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 8 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Al-Faisaly FC have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's away record: 0W 1D 5L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
On current form, Al-Faisaly FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Abha and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Abha trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 64% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 54% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.37 xG and Abha 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Abha attack 0.647 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 11 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 39% | Draw 32% | Abha 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Abha 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 39% | Draw 32% | Abha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.37 / Abha 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / def 1.220 | Abha attack 0.647 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Abha xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 8 April 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 39% chance of winning, Abha a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 2W | Draws 1 | Abha 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Abha in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Abha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.16
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.17
Abha xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.17 for Abha, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 0.27 PPG from 11 outings (0W 3D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Abha away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Abha away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
0
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 2, Abha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when Abha 0-1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Abha?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 67%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 67% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 50% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 67% of Abha's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Abha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.