Al-Ettifaq 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ettifaq stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Al-Ettifaq at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.911 / defence 0.860 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.343 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack rating of 1.343, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 54 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 24.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.58 | Draw 3.87 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.16. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.29 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 10 away games).

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