Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Nassr.

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Analysis

Al-Nassr make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Nassr (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Nassr away from home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2.20 for Al-Nassr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Nassr and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–4 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% and Al-Nassr 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Al-Nassr 91%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.23 xG and Al-Nassr 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.865 / defence 0.790 | Al-Nassr attack 1.515 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.490. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.515, which lifts their away xG to 1.78. Al-Ahli Jeddah have a tight defence (rating 0.790), which is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 23 games and Al-Nassr's last 53.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.84 | Draw 4.15 | Al-Nassr 2.01. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 80% (last 10 away games).

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