Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.016 / defence 0.751 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.767 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.376. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.767 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 59 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.92. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.016 / def 0.751 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.767 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 23% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
23%
4.26
25%
4.04
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.00
1.83
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.26
23%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
16%
6.21
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
4%
26.43
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.83 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 16W 7D 6L from 29 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 2D 0L across 29 games — 2.86 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ahli Jeddah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 9W 4D 1L from 14 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 13W 1D 0L across 14 trips, a 2.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.07 scored and 0.62 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 2D 0L in their last 29 (2.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 71% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 50%; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.17 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.83 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.02 / defence 0.75 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.77 / defence 0.79, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.86 PPG against 1.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.