Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (1.10 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al-Hazm 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% versus Al-Hazm 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% | Al-Hazm 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG and Al-Hazm 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.161 / defence 1.294 | Al-Hazm attack 0.612 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.171. Data: 16 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 16 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Hazm 4.35. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% | Al-Hazm 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 / Al-Hazm 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.161 / def 1.294 | Al-Hazm attack 0.612 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.16x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.61x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.61
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.42
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
19.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.93 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 7D 6L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 5D 9L from 16 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al-Ahli Jeddah against 0.69 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 75%, Al-Hazm 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 25% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 25% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 25% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.49 xG and Al-Hazm 0.93 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.16 / defence 1.29 against Al-Hazm attack 0.61 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 23%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, Al-Hazm 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.