Rubin 1-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rubin face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Krasnodar make the trip to Ak Bars Arena to face Rubin in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:45 UTC.
Current Form
Rubin's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rubin have posted 3W 3D 4L at Ak Bars Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Krasnodar have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Krasnodar arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, FC Krasnodar have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Rubin's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that FC Krasnodar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Rubin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 46% versus FC Krasnodar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 41% | FC Krasnodar 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 0.84 xG and FC Krasnodar 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.852 / defence 1.217 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.395 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.293. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Rubin games / 44 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 11% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 66%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 9.09 | Draw 4.17 | FC Krasnodar 1.52. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 50% | FC Krasnodar 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ak Bars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 11% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Rubin 0.84 / FC Krasnodar 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.852 / def 1.217 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.395 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
2.20
FC Krasnodar xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Rubin vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 16:45 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Ak Bars Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Rubin 1 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Rubin vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Ak Bars Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Rubin vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 11% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 66% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rubin and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Krasnodar?
Record (4 meetings): Rubin 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 3W.
What form are Rubin and FC Krasnodar in?
Rubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.85x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.40x) against Rubin's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
11%
9.50
24%
4.25
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Rubin xG
Total xG
3.03
2.20
FC Krasnodar xG
9.50
11%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
11%
8.99
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
1%
85.37
29%
3.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rubin and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Rubin and 2.20 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs FC Krasnodar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rubin's recent record stands at 16W 12D 16L from 44 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 6L across 44 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Krasnodar by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rubin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rubin have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Krasnodar's away record stands at 10W 8D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rubin are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.73 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 11D 6L in their last 44 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.27 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Rubin or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rubin have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Rubin
2
Draws
6
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and FC Krasnodar?
From 9 meetings on record, Rubin have won 1, FC Krasnodar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Rubin 1-3 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 50%, FC Krasnodar 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rubin) and 46% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 36%; Rubin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rubin's recent matches and 54% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rubin vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rubin's recent games and 46% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rubin and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rubin and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin and FC Krasnodar finished level at 1-1 at Ak Bars Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 0.84 xG and FC Krasnodar 2.20 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Krasnodar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.40 / defence 0.72, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 11% | Draw 24% | FC Krasnodar 66%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 41%, FC Krasnodar 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.