Baltika 2-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Krylia Sovetov travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 December 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 0L across 8 games at Rostec Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rostec Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Krylia Sovetov have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Baltika are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baltika, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Baltika in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 29% versus Krylia Sovetov 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 18% | Krylia Sovetov 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.70 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.892 / defence 0.757 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.888 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.024. Krylia Sovetov bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Baltika's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Baltika's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Baltika games / 47 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 61% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 14%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Krylia Sovetov 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Baltika (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baltika at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baltika 38% | Krylia Sovetov 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 61% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Baltika 1.70 / Krylia Sovetov 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.892 / def 0.757 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.888 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Baltika (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Baltika 2 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 61% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Baltika and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (3 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Baltika and Krylia Sovetov in?
Baltika (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.89x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.87
14%
7.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.39
0.69
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
7.39
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
2%
40.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Baltika and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Baltika and 0.69 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Baltika have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 8W 8D 1L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov's form line: 4W 5D 8L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baltika are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Krylia Sovetov.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baltika have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (4W 4D 0L).
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.41 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baltika have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 8W 8D 1L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Baltika's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.00 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Baltika or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baltika have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Baltika's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Baltika
1
Draws
1
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov?
From 5 meetings on record, Baltika have won 3, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Krylia Sovetov 0-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Krylia Sovetov?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 38%, Krylia Sovetov 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Baltika) and 62% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Baltika's recent matches and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Baltika's recent games and 62% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.70 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.69 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.89 / defence 0.76 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 1.41, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 61% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 14%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 18%, Krylia Sovetov 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and duly kept one.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.