Vizela 1-0 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 38%, yet in-form Portimonense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vizela vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Do Vizela this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portimonense's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Portimonense are 1.20 PPG clear of Vizela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vizela lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 61% versus Portimonense 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 44% | Portimonense 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.16 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.804 / defence 1.057 | Portimonense attack 0.921 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.120. Data: 41 Vizela games / 41 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 38% | Draw 29% | Portimonense 34%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Portimonense 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portimonense (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 60% | Portimonense 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 38% | Draw 29% | Portimonense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Vizela 1.16 / Portimonense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.804 / def 1.057 | Portimonense attack 0.921 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Vizela (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Portimonense xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Portimonense kick off?
Vizela vs Portimonense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Vizela 1 - 0 Portimonense.
Where is Vizela vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Portimonense part of?
Vizela vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 38% chance of winning, Portimonense a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vizela and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
Record (2 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 2 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Portimonense (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.80) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.92x) against Vizela's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
38%
2.67
29%
3.48
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.25
1.09
Portimonense xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vizela and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Vizela and 1.09 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 8W 14D 19L from 41 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 18L across 41 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Vizela against 1.29 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 4W 8D 8L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.95 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 8W 14D 19L in their last 41 games (0.93 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.00 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Vizela or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Portimonense in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Portimonense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Portimonense 0-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Portimonense?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 55%, Portimonense 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Vizela and 35% for Portimonense.
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 40%; Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games; Portimonense in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Vizela's recent matches and 25% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vizela's recent games and 35% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Portimonense tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vizela edge out Portimonense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Portimonense 1-0 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.16 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portimonense landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Portimonense attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 38% | Draw 29% | Portimonense 34%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 44%, Portimonense 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Portimonense's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 0.93 PPG, Portimonense 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Portimonense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.