Tondela 2-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tondela vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio João Cardoso to face Tondela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tondela have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's home record at Estádio João Cardoso: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. GIL Vicente are 0.60 PPG clear of Tondela in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tondela lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Tondela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Tondela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tondela 33% versus GIL Vicente 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tondela 52% | GIL Vicente 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tondela 0.91 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tondela attack 0.585 / defence 1.030 | GIL Vicente attack 0.954 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.152. Tondela's attack strength of 0.585 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Tondela games / 62 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tondela 29% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 41%. Fair-value odds: Tondela 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | GIL Vicente 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Tondela 40% | GIL Vicente 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tondela vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio João Cardoso • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tondela 29% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Tondela 0.91 / GIL Vicente 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Tondela attack 0.585 / def 1.030 | GIL Vicente attack 0.954 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Tondela xG
Expected Goals
1.13
GIL Vicente xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tondela vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Tondela vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso.
What was the final score in Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Tondela 2 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Tondela vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio João Cardoso.
What competition is Tondela vs GIL Vicente part of?
Tondela vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Tondela a 29% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Tondela and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Tondela vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and GIL Vicente?
Record (3 meetings): Tondela 1W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 2W.
What form are Tondela and GIL Vicente in?
Tondela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tondela's attack at 0.58x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.95x) against Tondela's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 27/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
29%
3.43
30%
3.31
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Tondela xG
Total xG
2.04
1.13
GIL Vicente xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Tondela and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Tondela and 1.13 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Tondela vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tondela come into this having played 27 games, going 4W 8D 15L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Tondela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tondela's home form reads 1W 6D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.69 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tondela are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.48 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tondela
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tondela and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Tondela have gone 4W 8D 15L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tondela at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tondela at home: 0.69 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Tondela or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tondela have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 0-3 on 28 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tondela have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Tondela
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tondela and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Tondela have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tondela and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Tondela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Tondela and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tondela see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tondela 38%, GIL Vicente 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Tondela) and 54% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 31%; Tondela have failed to score in 62% of games; GIL Vicente in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tondela home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tondela play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Tondela's recent matches and 54% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tondela vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Tondela's recent games and 54% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tondela and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Tondela have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tondela and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela and GIL Vicente finished level at 2-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.91 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.58 / defence 1.03 against GIL Vicente attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 27/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 29% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 41%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 52%, GIL Vicente 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tondela's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.