Santa Clara 0-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 1W 3D 4L from 8 Primeira Liga matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have recorded 0W 3D 5L from 8 outings — 0.38 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Santa Clara at 0.75 PPG versus Famalicao's 0.38. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Santa Clara 50% and Famalicao 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 50% | Famalicao 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.34 xG and Famalicao 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.887 / defence 1.374 | Famalicao attack 0.862 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.219. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Santa Clara games / 8 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 32% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 36%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Famalicao 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 50% | Famalicao 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 32% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Santa Clara 1.34 / Famalicao 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.887 / def 1.374 | Famalicao attack 0.862 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Famalicao xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Famalicao kick off?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Santa Clara 0 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is Santa Clara vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Famalicao part of?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 32% chance of winning, Famalicao a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Santa Clara and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Famalicao (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.08
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.79
1.44
Famalicao xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.44 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 3D 4L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 0.75 PPG, Famalicao on 0.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Famalicao away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.25 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Santa Clara
1
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 2, Famalicao have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Santa Clara 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 50%, Famalicao 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Santa Clara and 75% for Famalicao. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Santa Clara's games and 75% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santa Clara vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Santa Clara's matches and 75% of Famalicao's.
Do Santa Clara and Famalicao tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Santa Clara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Santa Clara 0-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.34 xG and Famalicao 1.44 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Santa Clara fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.89 / defence 1.37 against Famalicao attack 0.86 / defence 1.48, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 32% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 36%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 50%, Famalicao 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 0.75 PPG, Famalicao 0.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.